Monthly Archives: August 2012

The shell game begins anew

After suffering through the 2010 Nevada Senate Race that saw Sharon Angle attempt to unseat Harry Reid (who’s name in native American means “One who harvests without sowing”), I thought I’d pretty much never see another campaign that nasty. These two went after each like a couple in divorce court arguing over who got the Mercedes while never questioning what would happen to their kids.

In short, their priorities were way out of whack.

Barack Obama & Mitt RomneyFrom what I’m seeing in the Barack Obama-Mitt Romney battle, Nevada was evidently just the warm-up act.

Both sides seem to be getting nasty, with the Democrats clinging to a slight advantage in holding the high ground. While what they say is pretty accurate – save Reid’s accusations about Romney’s taxes – their attack ads are just as nasty as their counterparts.

And the GOP, well they just keep doing what they have been doing, considering it has worked “so well” for them over the last five elections. If it hadn’t been for the Dems sending two unelectable candidates (Al Gore and John Kerry) to the table against George W. Bush, the Republicans might be 0-for-5. Their recent attempts to twist the President’s speech on small business into saying something that he totally did not say is proof positive.

But what I find interesting is how the GOP seems to be using a tactic that the Dems deployed in 2004. It’s sneaky and with just a smack of the truth, it gets people believing to a small degree.

It started yesterday with DickMorris.com publishing a blog entry on “The Real Poll Numbers”. Morris asserts that the numbers we see in the media (where Obama is consistently ahead of Romney) are not accurate and that in reality, Romney is winning in state after state. In 2004 it was media that had Kerry leading Bush wire to wire. But when the election came down, it was clear that they were wrong, and decidedly so.

But at that point in time the media as a whole saw some glaring errors in the way they were polling and they fixed them. We have not seen any major discrepancies in national polls since that time, so we can expect that trend will continue until proven otherwise.

The interesting thing with Morris’ blog is that he declines to name the pollster, only calling them “… an organization I trust (after forty years of polling).” Why no name? Why can’t WE see the poll and judge its validity for ourselves? And if they have been around for 40 years, are they afraid to be named or seen?

There is something about that dog that just don’t hunt. Unless, of course, their CEO’s name is Lord Voldemort.

I get the sense that Romney’s campaign is hedging a bet that if they can sell the fact that all of the public polls are wrong, that some people will shift to vote for them because they like voting for the winner and not necessarily the best candidate. People love a winner. The thinking is that if you sell your guy hard enough as the obvious winner, they’ll just hop on board because they really didn’t have time to do any research any way.

Watch the game people. Since I was a junior in high school I have had the good fortune to call the winner of every Presidential Election since Ronald Reagan took office. That’s eight in a row, including the Bush-Gore debacle in which I told people “… It’ll be really close, but Bush will edge Gore out.”

This one is looking close too. But there are still 92 days left until we cast a ballot, which is more than enough time for one of these guys to pull a John McCain and dis David Letterman or pick a Sarah Palin as a running mate. Although I would have hoped that both camps would have learned from those major miscues.

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